According to my theories, evolution of Earth is cycling between periods of weak and strong evolution.
Some parts of the theory are already confirmed - studies show that
evolution of
species indeed accelerates with accelerated changes in environment.
Our environment is changing and we are changing at an accelerated pace (although physical changes may not be so evident yet as they are preceded by changes in mentality). Significant changes
in evolution of the Solar System and Earth [in whole] may also not be so evident yet, but, all things considered, we are at the end of a period of long weak evolution and at the start of a pulse
of strong evolution on the surface of Earth.
We are in the middle of the 6th major extinction and my works show there's plenty of reason to
believe such events are synchronized with cataclysmic changes in the Solar System.
One part of these events is a temporary collapse of planetary magnetic fields (at least some). Signs of
collapse include dipole fragmentation, decreasing strength and instability of magnetic dip
poles. All of these are currently present on Earth - e.g., South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) - which appears
to be splitting into two (further confirming the hypothesis), decreasing dipole strength,
rapid pole movements.
Update in Requiem for electronic devices.
Although decreasing in strength, studies show that current strength of Earth's magnetic field is about as
strong as it was in the last 100,000 years. Data shows that even anomalies such as the SAA are not uncommon and perhaps
shouldn't even be called anomalies - rather a normal part of magnetic field fluctuation.
For that reason, many scientists don't expect a collapse, rather expect this to be a short-lived decrease (as part of fluctuation about the average mean), even though rapid movement of magnetic
poles may not be so normal.
However, studies on which these conclusions are based lack a holistic approach. Looking at magnetic field over history alone might not reveal anything unusual, looking at climate alone one might
conclude this is just a short-lived excursion, etc. But what happens when all these are synchronized?
There's climate change, magnetic field instability, extinctions and probably increasing seismic activity (and I hypothesize even increasing asteroid bombardment), all occurring at the
same time.
All of these generally might not be strongly correlated and if one is looking for strong causality, one will interpret this simultaneity as coincidence, but, by my hypotheses, this synchronization
is a signature of a major change [in all these phenomena] - climate, environment, magnetic field and seismicity becoming more Mars-like (after reaching maximum instability) or Venus-like (although, in
case of Earth, I believe this is a transition to a Mars-like planet).
In that interpretation, even anthropogenic contribution is a symptom of coded development, not the absolute cause of changes.
The
theory of planetary neurogenesis predicts this collapse to be synchronized with the
collapse of Sun's outer gravitational maximum which will result in a burst of high energy cosmic
rays (ions) a good portion of which will be absorbed by Earth.
A short-term collapse of Earth's magnetic field on its own probably wouldn't be life threatening as the thick atmosphere would absorb most of the incoming energy (this is why magnetic field
reversals are usually not correlated with extinctions). Problems arise when this is coupled with increased strength of cosmic rays and stripping or thinning of the atmosphere. Without the magnetic
field, the solar wind will be stripping the atmosphere. Duration of collapse and strength of the incoming solar wind are then the salient factors determining the effect on life. The effect on
technology, however, should be noticeable, even with retained atmosphere.
While full collapse should be a couple of decades away (if accelerated evolution does follow the
derived equation), smaller precursor collapses and magnetic excursions are
expected too.
For quite some time now, computers on satellites experience problems while passing through
the South Atlantic Anomaly (which has increased 5 times since 1850.). Passing through the anomaly initiated
a chain of events which even led to destruction of JAXA Hitomi satellite.
Assuming linear progression it could take hundreds of years before magnetic strength on the
surface decreases to that of the anomaly at the height of satellites, but at some point the
progression must become exponential and cosmic rays will start making our electronics useless
much sooner than expected with linear progression.
The effect, however, will not be the same everywhere, a likely scenario are temporary
contractions of magnetic field lines with no large changes in field shape during contractions.
How will this affect one's electronic devices?
Once a cosmic ray particle (anti-proton, neutron, ...) hits computer memory (RAM, ROM, SSD, CPU buffers, anything that includes transistors, although magnetic storage ain't safe
either),
stored bits can
get flipped (from 0 to 1 and vice versa).
One particular pathway for disruption I find interesting is the
induced
fission of 10B (10-Boron isotope) which is often present in semiconductors (I have
hypothesized local enrichment in
10B during strong evolution in case of selective
decay, cosmic rays might act to restore the
balance).
This is already happening with electronic memory, but not so often and, in most cases, one won't notice
anything in case of ECC memory (memory with error-correction mechanisms), which one might have
on a desktop computer but most likely not on a cellphone.
Transistors on cellphones are also generally smaller and more tightly packed, which makes them even
more vulnerable (multiple bits can get flipped at once, in which case even ECC wouldn't help).
But even hard drives are not immune to bit flips due to cosmic rays, especially newer ones with thinner plates and
smaller physical bit elements.
In any case, the problems will eventually start happening even with ECC memory and hard drives. This will
cause corruption of data, BSOD (
blue screens of death), reboots and failure.
Of course, that's not where the problems end - everything today relies on computers so there will
be problems with networks, electricity, cars, etc.
I believe precursors to larger collapses will be localized (in space and/or time) punctuations of the field which, due to limited resolution of instruments (which themselves may be affected) may
go unnoticed. Therefore, cosmic rays probably won't even be considered as the cause for malfunction of devices (if malfunction of a device is considered at all). And this can cause serious
accidents, notably in traffic. Malfunctioned semaphores or electronics in vehicles will result in car crashes, train derailments, etc.
We can see precursors to this already (perhaps the collapse of one's
favourite social
network was not caused by cosmic rays but one can interpret it as a demo of things to come).
In nature, there are generally many equally valid interpretations of certain developments.
The collapse of the magnetic field has its reasons, but I find one appropriate reason for
the collapse of technology - it will make people appreciate nature more.
And I think anyone sane will agree that greater appreciation of nature is what we all need at
this moment of time.